Proposing a New Order for NFL Draft Picks

Image by Marianne O'Leary on Flickr

NFL teams that just miss the playoffs should be given the top picks in the NFL draft. The way the NFL can do this is by reversing the pick order of the 18 teams that don't make the playoffs. So, the team with the 18th pick in the current draft order would have the first pick in the new draft order, the team with the 17th pick would have the second pick, and so on to the 18th pick, which would be held by the team to finish last in the league.

The clubs that do make the playoffs would keep their current pick number.

Teams should not be rewarded for bad play. Giving the first pick to the worst team does not make the league more competitive. It makes a team sport more focused on stars, usually quarterbacks, instead of teams. This is not good for the game of football, because the game's strength is in its foundation as a team sport, its emphasis on teamwork.

This new draft order, on the other hand, would be good for the game of football because it would place the best prospects in the draft on decent teams. If a team just missed the playoffs, they're a decent team and deserve some recognition for their success. Also, players who are good enough to be top picks deserve to be on decent teams.

Our culture rewards mediocrity too much. In fact, it's worse than that. We reward failure. We're rewarding teams with top picks when they finish last. As a result, well, we don't see results. Bad teams often remain bad even after getting multiple top picks, and the talents of those top picks are often squandered because the bad team they're on doesn't have the other pieces it needs to succeed. These top NFL prospects are often expected to be the saviors of teams that usually need much more than an upgrade at one position. Over the past 10 years (2015-2024), no top 3 pick has won a Super Bowl with the team that drafted them.

The NFL is a microcosm of America's culture, where we often think easy and quick solutions are the best solutions. The problem is, not all problems are that easy to fix. Sometimes, sure, all a team needs is a better quarterback. But football is a multi-layered sport. It's a team sport. A team usually doesn't finish last in the NFL unless there are multiple problems throughout the franchise.

The best way to rebuild is to build upon what's already good. In many ways, a team---or a culture---that is struggling already has many good components that deserve to be a part of something better.

The 2023 Bengals are the perfect example of a team that deserved to be better. They were on the better end of a 5-year rebuild after winning just two games in 2019 and four in 2020. The 2023 Bengals just missed the playoffs, and they'd lost several games by one score in 2023. They're often one of a few teams that just seemed to need a slight boost going into the next year to be true contenders. The Vikings, Saints, Colts, and probably every other team at some point had rosters that were one good player away from making deep runs in the playoffs, instead of just missing them. One more top draft pick truly could have made a difference for these teams, because they had all the other pieces in place. If the NFL wanted to encourage more competition at the most competitive level, the playoff level, they would flip the top 18 picks.

Today's draft order stymies teams' growth. If they have a bad season, they're expected to grab a top prospect---usually a quarterback---in the draft. Not only is this decision getting boring and predictable. Poor QB play is often not the team's only problem. Often it's the team's culture, its management, or just the inability for the players to find chemistry playing together. For bad teams, no single player is the solution. For decent teams that just miss the playoffs though, they truly may just need one more piece in their puzzle to become true contenders.

Detering Tanking

The current draft order also leads to bad incentives like tanking. When a team knows it's not going to make the playoffs, talk begins on the logic in just playing for that number one pick, which involves just playing poorly for the rest of the season. Why even bother watching teams that aren't playing to win, though? Where's the excitement in that?

With the new draft system I'm proposing, if a team isn't going to make the playoffs, they can at least compete for a higher pick. I envision decent teams at 8-8 competing for the top pick at the end of the season, when they know they're out of the playoff picture. Even earlier in the season, a 1-7 team can compete for at least a top draft pick by winning more games instead of losing more games. While they're technically not out of the playoffs that early in the year, playing for a top draft pick could give them more incentive to keep playing well since it's a more realistic goal. It's definitely better than having the brass consider tanking at week nine. With the current draft order though, tanking is a popular strategy for teams that start the season poorly, even if management denies that they ever consider it.

Encouraging Team Loyalty

Tanking isn't the only strategy players and coaches consider due to the current draft order. When their team isn't doing well, some of them start thinking of their individual careers more than their team. Coaches and players start looking for other teams, and practically resign from their current jobs mid-season. They figure, 'Why be a team player when I know I'm going to be fired or traded? I might as well get a head start on the next chapter of my career.' Teams and players shouldn't be considering those decisions until all opportunities for that season have been exhausted.

A top draft pick is something the whole franchise, including the players, could and should get excited about. Instead, in today's NFL culture, a top draft pick is a business decision that makes the current players look bad, because the new pick is deemed to be the one who's going to fix their problems. What kind of environment is that for a new elite prospect pro athlete to enter into?

On the other hand, if the player is placed on a decent team, where he's joining just to add another weapon to an arsenal of players that has already enjoyed at least some success, the new player is already positioned to succeed in the league because he's entering a healthier environment that has a more winning mindset. He's not expected to put out any fires. He's just expected to help keep the fire lit.

Expanding Position Horizons

Lastly, this new draft order would encourage top picks other than quarterbacks. In most draft, signal callers are the most common position picked in the top 10. In 2023, five QBs were picked in the top 10. It's so common that it's getting old and boring. These top-10 pick QBs often do not see much success for reasons I already mentioned. They're placed on teams where even a great veteran QB would struggle. The new draft order would give top picks to teams that may or may not need a quarterback. It would give teams an incentive to add value to other positions. The new draft order would be good for football, as it would highlight the value of positions other than quarterback. Imagine a league where every team had a different skill position or unit that opponents had to gameplan against. I'm a Giants fan. While Phil Simms was a good quarterback, when teams played the Giants in the 1980's, their focus was on Lawrence Taylor. Imagine if the NFL had that kind of dynamism today. One team could have a cornerback that teams have to gameplan against (like teams had to plan against Deion Sanders back in the day). Another team could have an offensive line that's worthy of the most attention, due to its success in the running and passing game. A few teams have running backs who are the main stars, but most of the time the focus is on the QB.

New Draft Order

Here is a layout of the new proposed draft order. I also indicate what team would have gotten each pick in 2023, if this new draft order were used:

Current Pick	New Pick	2023 Team	Team's 2023 record
18	1	Cincinnati Bengals	9-8
17	2	Jacksonville Jaguars	9-8
16	3	Seattle Seahawks	9-8
15	4	Indianapolis Colts	9-8
14	5	New Orleans Saints	9-8
13	6	Las Vegas Raiders	8-9
12	7	Denver Broncos	8-9
11	8	Minnesota Vikings	7-10
10	9	New York Jets	7-10
9	10	Chicago Bears	7-10
8	11	Atlanta Falcons	7-10
7	12	Tennessee Titans	6-11
6	13	New York Giants	6-11
5	14	Los Angeles Chargers	5-12
4	15	Arizona Cardinals	4-13
3	16	New England Patriots	4-13
2	17	Washington	4-13
1	18	Carolina Panthers	2-15

Picks 19-32 would stay the same. If a team makes the playoffs, the draft doesn't need to help them. They just need to improve upon what they already have. We've seen many teams make the playoffs one year and then win the Super Bowl the very next year, with their current position in the draft.

This pick order would apply to every round. So, teams could be placed in one of two categories: Playoff teams that would keep their current pick number, and non-playoff teams that would have their draft pick order flipped.

What do you think? Would this be a better setup for the NFL draft? Leave your comments below.

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